Implementasi Pipeline ETL dan Pemodelan Prediktif ARIMA dalam Memetakan Pola Pembelian Konsumen pada Dataset Marketplace
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62951/repeater.v4i1.799Keywords:
ARIMA, Data Engineering, ETL, Forecasting, MarketplaceAbstract
In the rapidly evolving digital economy, the ability to anticipate transaction surges is a strategic asset for marketplace platforms to maintain operational efficiency. This research aims to build an accurate daily transaction volume forecasting system thru the implementation of an Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) pipeline and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) predictive modeling. The dataset used is sourced from dataset_olshop.csv, which includes transaction history for the entire year of 2025. The ETL stage focused on data cleaning and handling missing values, while time series analysis began with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test, which yielded a significant p-value of 0.000006. The parameter model was optimized using the auto_arima algorithm, which determined the ARIMA(2,0,0) configuration as the best model. The evaluation results of the model show fairly stable performance with a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 2.002 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.704 on the test data. Research findings reveal a consistently higher purchasing pattern during the mid-month and end-of-month periods, with an average of 5.52 daily transactions, compared to the beginning of the month, which saw 5.48 transactions. The 30-day forecast results provide valuable insights for online store managers to proactively adjust inventory and logistics workforce allocation strategies. This research concludes that integrating data engineering techniques and statistical analysis can provide predictive solutions for the dynamics of the digital market.
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